Climate Change and its Impact on Southern Fergana Landscapes

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of climate change on the Southern Fergana landscapes, focusing on temperature trends, precipitation variability, and their implications for agricultural productivity in Uzbekistan. Utilizing meteorological data from the Kokand weather station (1930–2023), the research analyzes long-term shifts in seasonal temperatures, agroclimatic parameters, and extreme weather events. Key findings reveal a significant temperature increase, with winter temperatures rising by 0.8°C between 1960–1990 and summer anomalies becoming more frequent. Precipitation patterns show irregularity, with April experiencing excessive rainfall that disrupts crop sowing cycles. The study highlights the adverse effects of rising temperatures on staple crops such as cotton, wheat, and tomatoes, with yield reductions of 9–22% under prolonged heatwaves (>35°C). Conversely, elevated CO₂ concentrations and traditional practices like winter irrigation ("chilla suvi") demonstrate partial mitigation benefits, improving soil moisture and reducing pest infestations. Regional disparities are evident: northern areas with shallow groundwater face challenges in fruit cultivation, while southern regions adapt through diversified horticulture. Projections indicate worsening conditions by 2070–2100, with intensified water scarcity threatening irrigated lands. The findings underscore the urgency for adaptive strategies, including optimized irrigation scheduling, heat-resistant crop varieties, and policy reforms to address food security. This research provides critical insights for sustainable agricultural planning in Central Asia’s arid zones under evolving climatic stresses.